Perhaps a sign of Vista's failure, or the fact that Microsoft is back to it's brilliant marketing, the rumours are boiling up again with regards to Vista's successor - Windows 7. And more recently, it has been "projected" by Microsoft that it could be released as early as next year.
But those with experience of Microsoft's "projections" and "road maps" will know that it's hard to trust their predictions. Take Longhorn for example, the codename for the beta for Vista, it seemed that Microsoft tried to do too much in too short a time, in an attempt to ship Vista on time.
The result?
A wondrous failure in the form of restarting the whole development process two years into its development. Consequently, the company pressured by the datelines it set itself, focused on when the product would ship, instead of when it would be ready.
This, of course, was contradictory to Gates' statement in 2004, in the thick of Longhorn development problems - he reassured everyone that the release would not become date-driven in a famous quote:
This is Not a Date-Driven Release
We have things where we say
The train is leaving on this date
Whoever has their act totally together
By that date the train will leave
And the train could have a lot of people on it
Or it could be
Fairly Empty
- W.H. Gates III
Unfortunately, this was turned on its head when Vista switched its focus to dates, that even Gates seemed to admit to Gizmodo at CES earlier this year, that Vista shipped before it was fully ready, a sign that they missed the point of "totally together" before placing Vista on the "shipping train", with departure time as the primary focus.
With all the hype Microsoft has created around Windows 7, it had better deliver on its promises, or risk losing more of the market share that has already left due to Vista's disappointment.
In fact, according to sales figures (keynote Oct 2008), Mac sales had a tremendous spike for the few months following Vista's release, boosting the adoption rate of Mac past the 20% line in the US market. Considering the figure for Mac's US consumer market share was below 10% in 2004, the difference is rather significant.
Repeating a Mistake?
Either Microsoft hasn't learned from its mistakes regarding vista, or it wouldn't have announced a launch date for Windows 7. Otherwise, it might be as some believe, that they are still what they are, a marketing company selling hype once again.
With the launch of SP1, Microsoft took 16 months to deliver the first Service Pack for Vista. A November 2009 release of Windows 7 will give them roughly 36 months of time between Vista and Windows 7, a little more than twice the time consumed by the Vista SP1 efforts. With such a pace, it seems implausible that Microsoft will be able to keep to the launch date. Unless, of course, they decide to abandon Vista as a product altogether in order to focus on hitting the Windows 7 launch.
So if Windows 7 doesn't need an early announcement of a launch date, what does it really need?
First, Windows 7 must be stable from its release, with spit and polish that Vista didn't get from its developers. Without attending to the details, rough edges come to annoy customers; unfortunately, according to reports, BSODs were even more frequent on Vista Service Pack 1 than on XP Service Pack 2. Backward compatibility in Vista was also poorly done and non-user-friendly, resulting in numerous users "upgrading" to the older, more functionally sound XP.
Secondly, Microsoft should stop being a "release date" company, as with the bad reputation accumulated with the launch of Windows Vista, it has lost its hype playing card, with people skeptical about them being able to deliver on their promises. Instead, Windows 7 needs to really hit the mark as a stable and reliable platform, one that XP has been for years. If Windows 7 makes the mark, there won't be many Software Assurance customers left to worry about appeasing.
Windows 7 needs to bring with it the redemption of Microsoft, or it may well mark its decline in dominance of the consumer market. That, my dear reader, cannot and should not be rushed.